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Admin Reporter- Ajay

May 27 2020

January-March Quarter Growth Rate Likely Weakest Since 2012 And Gdp Contraction Of 6.8 Percent In Fy2021



The cases of Mumbai Corona are increasing rapidly. Lockdown 4 has a few days left, although economic activity has begun. More than eight weeks of complete lockdown have caused great damage to the economy. All agencies say that the growth rate for the current financial year (2020-21) will be negative ( GDP contraction ). Different claims are being made about this in different reports. There is also a report for the fourth quarter of FY 2020 which can reach the minimum level of eight years. The growth rate will be at the minimum level of eight years



According to a Reuters poll, the growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 ie January-March can reach the lowest level of the last eight years. HSBC economist Ayushi Chaudhary said that economic activity was normal in January and February, but the impact was on in March and in the last week on March 25, a complete lockdown was announced.



2.1% growth estimate

52 economists participated in this poll and they have taken data from 20-25 May. According to the report, this quarter the growth rate may be 2.1 percent. The report will be released on May 29 and the growth rate is estimated to be between + 4.5% to -1.5%. However, only six economists have predicted negative growth.




According to SBI's research report EcoRap, the growth rate in the fourth quarter (January-March) of FY 2019-20 can be 1.2 percent. The report further states that the growth rate may be 4.2 percent in FY 2019-20 and minus 6.8 percent in FY 2020-21.



Announcement of figures on 29 May

The National Statistics Office (NSO) will announce GDP growth figures for the fourth quarter of FY 2020 on 29 May. In the third quarter (October-December) of FY 2019-20, the growth rate has come down to a seven-year low of 4.7 percent. The growth rates in the first and second quarter of the previous fiscal were 5.1 per cent and 5.6 per cent.



Growth rate minus 6.8 percent in the current financial year

The report projected that GDP growth could be close to minus 6.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and gross value-added (GVA) growth to be minus 3.1 per cent. According to the report, the most damage occurred in the Red Zone, where almost all the major districts of the country are located. Red Zone and Orange Zone account for about 90 per cent of the total losses. The bigger the state, the greater the loss , according to the report, with the top 10 states contributing 75 per cent of the GDP loss. Only Maharashtra will account for 15.6 per cent of the losses, followed by Tamil Nadu (9.4 per cent) and Gujarat (8.6 per cent). The report said that in the last week of June, COVID-19 infection cases in the country may be at their highest.

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